In the past week, the stock market witnessed two significant events: a sustained uptrend resulting in six consecutive days of gains, and heightened volatility, particularly on the weekly expiry day. Despite fluctuations, indicators such as the VIX easing towards the end of the week and crossing both the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) suggest continued bullish momentum. However, concerns persist regarding the distance from pivotal levels, necessitating vigilance.
Nifty Outlook
The Nifty index surpassed the week’s target of 22400, indicating bullish sentiment. Despite signs of distribution near the Fibonacci extension level of 22460, there’s openness to further upside potential, possibly towards the upper Bollinger band at 22734. However, the distance from pivot levels raises caution, with downside markers set at 22417 and 22227, with potential for reversion pressures if breached.
Bank Nifty Projections
Bank Nifty’s cautious approach last week paid off, with a breach of the 48050 target occurring towards the end of the week. Momentum indicators signal potential for further gains, eyeing a rapid rise towards 48800. However, resistances from the 20-day and 50-day SMAs remain pertinent, while downside risks emerge below 47700.
Realty Sector Performance
The Realty index surged over 6% driven by notable gains in Macrotech, Oberoirlty, Godrej Properties, Phoenix, and Prestige. Despite DLF’s subdued contribution, technical indicators suggest a potential slowdown, with stocks nearing overbought levels and signals of exhaustion in the monthly MACD. Short-term positivity may lead towards 1060 levels, primarily supported by DLF, but caution is warranted amidst signs of impending supply zone entry.
Metal Sector Analysis
The Metal index continued its upward trajectory, reflecting a 6% gain last week. A range breakout and MACD signal favor further upside towards 9777-10025 levels. With a majority of index stocks poised favorably, Adani Enterprises, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel, APL Apollo, and Hindalco stand out as potential beneficiaries. Conversely, caution is advised for Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta, showing signs of exhaustion.
The market maintains its upward momentum, vigilance amidst volatility and sector-specific nuances is crucial for navigating potential risks and opportunities.
