India’s Economic Surveys have chronicled a resilient economy navigating global turbulence, from post-pandemic recovery in 2023-24 to moderated growth in 2024-25. As the 2025-26 edition looms tomorrow, it promises continuity with sharper focus on jobs and deregulation, signaling maturity in policy-making.
Evolution Across Years
The 2023-24 Survey celebrated peak momentum, with real GDP surging 8.2%—three quarters above 8%—driven by services (55% of economy, 7.6% growth), manufacturing revival, and falling inflation from 6.7% to 5.4%. Fiscal deficit narrowed to 5.6% via tax buoyancy and RBI dividends, while welfare scaled up: 34.7 crore Ayushman cards, 2.63 crore PMAY houses, boosting rural infra.
In contrast, 2024-25 reflected stabilization amid headwinds. GDP eased to 6.4%, with private consumption at 7.3% (61.8% of GDP) and rural rebound, but industrial growth targeted 6.2% led by construction and electricity. Capex boomed—38.8% rise FY20-24—with highways (5,853 km), rails (2,031 km), and ports (turnaround down to 30.4 hours); electronics hit 99% localization, pharma ₹4.17 trillion. Inflation softened to 4.9%, unemployment dipped to 3.2%, yet youth jobs lingered as a concern.
| Aspect | 2023-24 Survey | 2024-25 Survey |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 8.2% | 6.4% |
| Inflation | 5.4% | 4.9% (Apr-Dec) |
| Fiscal Deficit | 5.6% | Steady, capex focus |
| Key Drivers | Services, exports | Infra, consumption, MSMEs |
| Challenges | Global slowdown | Jobs, inequality |
Expectations for 2026
Tomorrow’s Survey eyes 6.3-6.8% FY26 growth, emphasizing deregulation for 8% sustained pace toward Viksit Bharat@2047. Amid global risks, expect green energy push (500 GW non-fossil by 2030), defence indigenization, and tax simplification—fewer TDS slabs, customs overhaul. Fiscal glide path to 4.4% deficit, debt-to-GDP reduction from FY27, prioritizes infra continuity over shocks.
Steady Helm, Bolder Reforms Needed
These surveys paint a success story: from 8.2% highs to resilient 6%+ amid geopolitics, proving structural strengths in consumption and capex. Yet, moderation reveals cracks—jobless growth haunts youth bulge, inequality persists despite welfare. 2026 must pivot boldly: turbocharge formal employment via MSME credit (Self-Reliant Fund scaled), skill 10 crore youth for Industry 4.0, and slash red tape for FDI surge.
Optimism prevails; India’s demographic edge and digital leap position it for 7-7.5% FY26 if Budget echoes these. But half-measures won’t cut it—deregulate states, green-tax incentives, joint couple taxation for equity. CEA Nageswaran’s tome could ignite Viksit fires, turning caution into conquest.
