As Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares for his upcoming bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kazan, Russia, it is essential to scrutinize the implications of this dialogue against the backdrop of India’s foreign policy and its handling of relations with China. While the meeting is framed as a positive step toward resolution, it also highlights several troubling aspects of India’s approach to international diplomacy, particularly in managing complex relationships with its neighbors.
The Illusion of Progress
The Modi-Xi meeting is touted as a significant event, marking their first bilateral discussion in five years. However, it raises questions about the efficacy of India’s foreign policy, especially considering the unresolved tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The assertion that clashes like those in Galwan in June 2020 can be avoided going forward is a statement that rings hollow given the history of Sino-Indian relations and the recurring patterns of conflict.
The foreign secretary’s remarks about reverting patrolling activities to pre-2020 conditions appear more like a temporary fix than a comprehensive solution. While disengagement is discussed, the underlying issues that fuel these conflicts remain largely unaddressed. By focusing on superficial agreements rather than engaging in substantive negotiations, India risks perpetuating a cycle of conflict without genuinely resolving the root causes.
A Reactionary Stance
India’s foreign policy appears increasingly reactive rather than proactive. The government has frequently waited for crises to escalate before responding, which reflects a lack of strategic foresight. The Galwan incident itself was a culmination of years of border disputes and misunderstandings that could have been addressed through timely diplomatic engagement.
Instead of cultivating a robust framework for conflict resolution, India seems to oscillate between aggression and appeasement, depending on the pressures it faces. This inconsistency not only undermines India’s credibility on the global stage but also emboldens adversaries like China, who may perceive India’s hesitance as weakness.
Internal Divisions and Their External Impact
Another critical issue affecting India’s foreign policy is the internal divisions that plague the nation. Rising nationalism and communal tensions have created a domestic atmosphere that complicates international relations. The Modi government’s focus on a singular national identity often comes at the expense of India’s diverse societal fabric, leading to increased polarization.
This internal discord has implications for India’s standing in international negotiations. Other nations, including China, may exploit these vulnerabilities, recognizing that domestic instability can weaken India’s bargaining position. When a country is preoccupied with its internal issues, it becomes less effective in projecting strength and unity on the international stage.
Failure to Learn from History
India’s approach to China demonstrates a troubling failure to learn from historical patterns. The recurring border tensions, exemplified by incidents in 1962 and more recently in 2020, indicate that historical grievances remain unresolved. Instead of using these lessons to inform a more robust strategy, India has often opted for a short-sighted approach, negotiating from a position of perceived weakness.
The Kazan meeting may serve as a reminder that without a long-term vision and a commitment to addressing historical injustices, any agreements reached will likely be temporary and superficial. India must recognize that engaging in diplomatic dialogue requires more than just meetings; it necessitates a comprehensive strategy that takes into account historical context and the complexities of power dynamics.
Overreliance on Major Powers
India’s foreign policy has shown a concerning trend of overreliance on major powers like the United States and Russia for strategic support. While alliances are essential, India’s attempt to align itself with these powers often comes at the cost of nurturing its relationships with neighboring countries. The focus on securing strategic partnerships may lead to neglecting regional dynamics that require delicate handling.
For instance, while Modi met with President Vladimir Putin prior to his meeting with Xi, the focus on these relationships can detract from the need to build constructive ties with immediate neighbors. A more balanced foreign policy would prioritize regional stability and collaboration over aligning too closely with any one major power, which may lead to unintended consequences.
Lack of a Cohesive Strategy
The absence of a cohesive foreign policy strategy is glaringly apparent in India’s dealings with China. The approach appears fragmented, lacking a clear vision of how to address the myriad challenges posed by China’s rising influence. Whether in trade, technology, or military posturing, India’s response has often seemed disjointed and reactive rather than reflective of a well-thought-out strategy.
For instance, while discussing disengagement at the LAC, India must simultaneously consider its trade relationship with China, which remains substantial despite ongoing tensions. Failing to integrate these discussions into a broader strategy limits India’s ability to navigate the complexities of its relationship with China effectively.
The Risk of Normalizing Aggression
By engaging in talks with China without addressing the underlying issues that led to tensions, India risks normalizing aggressive behavior from its neighbor. The notion that diplomacy alone can resolve deep-rooted conflicts without significant concessions on both sides creates a dangerous precedent. If India appears willing to overlook past aggressions for the sake of maintaining dialogue, it may embolden China to continue its assertive policies without consequence.
The danger lies in perpetuating a cycle where diplomatic engagement is seen as a weakness, leading to increased provocations from China. India must adopt a more assertive stance that clearly communicates its boundaries and expectations, ensuring that any diplomatic overtures are based on mutual respect and a genuine commitment to resolving differences.
Conclusion: A Need for Strategic Reassessment
As Modi and Xi prepare for their meeting in Kazan, it is crucial for India to engage in a thorough reassessment of its foreign policy. The approach taken thus far—characterized by reactive measures, inconsistent strategies, and an inability to address historical grievances—has proven inadequate in dealing with the complexities of its relationship with China.
Moving forward, India must adopt a more proactive, coherent, and balanced foreign policy that prioritizes regional stability, addresses historical injustices, and fosters constructive dialogue grounded in mutual respect. Without such a reassessment, the hopes pinned on the Kazan meeting may lead to more of the same—a temporary fix that fails to address the deeper issues at play in India-China relations.
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