Trump’s Resounding 2024 Victory: Why He Won and Why Kamala Harris Lost

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump achieved a sweeping victory, winning key swing states, improving his vote share across the board, and securing an outright majority of the popular vote—a stark contrast to his narrow win in 2016. His success extended beyond the presidency, as he also led the Republican Party to a stronger-than-expected Senate majority and may even secure a larger House majority once all the races are decided. The election results, while still being analyzed, suggest that this win could signal a fundamental shift in American politics.

As historians and political scientists begin to dissect the causes and long-term implications of Trump’s triumph, it’s possible to draw some initial conclusions. Two key questions emerge: Why did Donald Trump win the 2024 election, and why did Kamala Harris lose? The answers to these questions are intricately linked, as both campaigns faced unique challenges and made strategic choices that shaped the outcome.

Trump’s Victory: Building a Multi-Ethnic Working-Class Coalition

Donald Trump’s campaign was based on a theory of political realignment: that by strengthening the Republican Party’s appeal to white working-class voters, it was possible to build a broader coalition that included ethnic minorities, particularly Latinos and African Americans. Trump’s team was right. According to early exit polls, Trump made significant inroads among these groups, especially Latino and African American men. His share of the Black male vote increased from 12% in 2020 to 20%, and he carried Hispanic men by a notable nine-point margin (54% to 45%).

Additionally, Trump managed to improve his performance among young adults, particularly young men. His campaign worked hard to engage this demographic, reaching them through podcasts and platforms like Joe Rogan’s show, which has a massive following among hard-to-reach young male voters. Trump’s appeal to this group helped him increase his share of the youth vote from 35% in 2020 to 42% in 2024.

In the Republican primaries, after Trump secured the nomination, his campaign made a critical decision: instead of shifting to a more moderate tone to attract disappointed Nikki Haley supporters, they doubled down on appealing to the Republican base, confident that Haley’s followers would eventually rally behind him. This gamble paid off, with Trump receiving 94% of the Republican vote, and importantly, cutting into the Democratic edge among Independents—reducing it from nine points in 2020 to just five points in 2024.

Trump’s campaign made some tactical choices that helped turn the tide in his favor. Three were particularly influential:

1. Outsourcing the Ground Game: Trump’s campaign relied less on traditional get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts and instead outsourced much of the work to external organizations. This strategy worked, despite Harris’ campaign touting its advantage in grassroots organizing. The Trump campaign’s emphasis on mobilizing its base, rather than trying to win over every swing voter, proved successful.
2. Framing Harris on Transgender Issues: Trump’s team made transgender issues a major talking point in their campaign, targeting Harris for her stance on the issue. Their negative ads, particularly in the South, painted Harris as out of touch with mainstream American values, helping to undermine her image as a moderate candidate.
3. Abortion Policy Flexibility: Trump’s early declaration that abortion decisions should be left to individual states, followed by his commitment to veto a national abortion ban, helped him keep his base of white evangelical voters—who make up a key part of the GOP coalition. Despite some dissent from pro-life groups, Trump maintained strong support among this group, winning 81% of the white evangelical vote, virtually the same as in 2020.

Kamala Harris’ Defeat: Inherited Disadvantages and Missteps

Kamala Harris’ campaign faced steep hurdles from the outset. She was vice president under a president whose approval ratings had plummeted, particularly in his handling of inflation and immigration. Biden’s unpopularity weighed heavily on Harris, and she inherited the public discontent that had built up over the previous three years.

Biden’s delayed decision not to run for re-election also hurt Harris. By waiting until late in the game to step aside, Biden effectively shortened Harris’ time to define herself and introduce her vision to voters. As a result, Harris’ campaign never fully overcame the difficulties stemming from the late start, and she struggled to build the kind of momentum she needed to be a serious challenger.

Harris’ campaign strategy was flawed from the beginning. She seemed to assume that making reproductive rights a central issue would galvanize women voters in record numbers, as it had in 2022 midterms. However, exit polls showed little evidence of this. The share of female voters in 2024 increased marginally compared to 2020, but Harris’ share of the female vote remained stagnant. Her emphasis on abortion did little to sway men, whose support for her dropped from 48% in 2020 to just 43% in 2024.

Moreover, Harris’ messaging around Trump as a threat to democracy fell flat. While many Democrats were motivated by the desire to oppose Trump, it failed to resonate with independent and moderate voters who saw Harris and the Democratic Party as equally dangerous to the country’s stability. Her closing argument, that Trump posed an existential threat to democracy, offered nothing new to sway those whose minds were already made up about him.

Harris also made a number of tactical errors during the campaign:

1. Failure to Separate Herself from Biden: Despite Biden’s unpopularity, Harris refused to take bold stances that could distance her from the president. This lack of independence muddied her political profile and allowed the Trump campaign to portray her as a radical, even though she was attempting to present herself as a pragmatic center-left leader.
2. Avoiding Tough Media Engagements: Harris’ decision to avoid unscripted media interviews for much of the campaign created an impression that she was uncomfortable thinking on her feet. In a time when voters were looking for a confident and capable leader, this image hurt her credibility and made her seem more reactive than proactive.

Conclusion: A New Era for American Politics?

The results of the 2024 election suggest that the American political landscape is undergoing a significant transformation. While Trump’s victory signals a continued shift toward a multi-ethnic working-class coalition, Harris’ defeat reveals the Democratic Party’s struggles to adapt to the changing dynamics of American politics. In the coming years, Democrats will need to reckon with the causes of their defeat, likely engaging in deep self-reflection and a primary contest to determine the future direction of the party.

For Trump, the victory is bittersweet. He will face the challenge of delivering on the sweeping promises he made during the campaign, including his plans for tariffs, immigration reform, and foreign policy. If he fails to meet the expectations of his new coalition, especially among Latino voters and disaffected Republicans, the consequences could be felt in the 2026 midterms and beyond. The next chapter in American politics is uncertain, but it is clear that the 2024 election has set the stage for a new era in the country’s political history.